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Investors Shift Focus to Premium Properties in Q4 Surge

Investors are zeroing in on premium deals as rate cuts reshape the commercial real estate landscape—setting the stage for a strong year-end push.

Investors Shift Focus to Premium Properties in Q4 Surge

Investors are zeroing in on premium deals as rate cuts reshape the commercial real estate landscape—setting the stage for a strong year-end push.

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Good morning. Investors are zeroing in on premium deals as rate cuts reshape the CRE landscape—setting the stage for a strong year-end push.

Today’s issue is brought to you by FNRP—necessity-based commercial real estate investments for experienced high-net-worth investors.

 Last chance: Take 3 minutes to share your thoughts on the CRE market's pulse in the Q4 2024 Fear and Greed CRE Survey. Reply to this email when done to snag our free Back of the Evenvolpe Multifamily Deal Screener!

Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
6,032.38
Pct Chg:
+0.56%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
838.23
Pct Chg:
-0.31%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.215%
Pct Chg:
+0.021
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.844
Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 11/29/2024 market close.

MARKET REPORT

Commercial Property Prices Edge Higher in Q4

As rate cuts take hold, investors are doubling down on high-value deals.

Strong start: Commercial property prices gained traction in October, bolstered by investor optimism around the Federal Reserve’s easing of borrowing rates. August, September, and October emerged as the most robust months for sales this year, per CoStar Group’s Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI). October’s repeat-sale transactions reached $10.18 billion, a 7.2% rise compared to October 2023.

Zoom in: Total sales for 2024 have climbed to $88.5 billion, outpacing 2023's year-end figure by 7.6%. October marked the second-highest repeat-sales month, trailing only September. However, November sales may dip, reflecting a typical seasonal slowdown.

Investment-grade property sales outpace general commercial

Leading the way: Investment-grade properties continued to dominate transactions, accounting for 59% of 2024’s overall sales, up from 56% in the same period last year. In October alone, these higher-value deals represented 63% of monthly repeat sales, reflecting a shift toward premium assets.

Pricing trends: The CCRSI value-weighted U.S. composite index, emphasizing investment-grade sales, rose 1.1% in October—the third consecutive month of increases. Simultaneously, the equal-weighted index for general commercial properties increased by 1.3%, signaling broader market growth.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Why it matters: The surge in investment-grade transactions highlights a strategic pivot among investors, signaling confidence in premium assets that can better adapt to shifting economic tides—a trend to watch as the year-end approaches.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Podcast: Matthew Mannion, famed for handling high-profile NYC real estate auctions, shares insights from courthouse steps to the complexities of closing landmark deals amidst rising foreclosures.

  • Rate predictions: Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to halt rate cuts after December, while Goldman Sachs and Citi foresee deeper reductions in response to economic conditions.

  • Tahoe Village: Palisades Tahoe secured approval for a transformative village expansion, including lodging, workforce housing, and recreation facilities, despite environmental concerns.

  • Side hustle: Star athletes, including Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manu Ginobili, are leveraging their wealth to enter real estate ventures from luxury rentals to affordable housing.

  • Rebuilding: Chicago’s $20M Rebuild 2.0 program aims to transform abandoned properties in disinvested neighborhoods into homes for local residents, promoting revitalization and homeownership.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Hot market: Fisher Island, Florida, tops the list of priciest U.S. rental markets, with median one-bedroom rents soaring to $20,000 monthly.

  • New problem: Overbuilding and risky investments are straining the multifamily sector, but experts argue its challenges differ fundamentally from the office market.

  • Unpaid balance: Acres Capital is suing Tides Equities' co-founders for $5M in personal liability and $8.2M in damages, citing loan defaults, neglect, and unmet renovation commitments at a foreclosed Dallas property.

  • Touchdown in Tampa: Continental Realty Corp. acquired Henley Tampa Palms for $82M, aiming to elevate the Class B multifamily property with value-add upgrades in a high-growth market.

  • Affordable vision: The San Antonio Housing Trust plans to acquire nearly 6 acres in Cattleman Square to preempt gentrification, preserve affordability, and involve the community in future housing plans.

  • Florida sale: Blackstone sold the Horizon at Miramar apartment complex for $121.3M to Bell Partners, which plans to revamp the 349-unit South Florida property.

🏭 Industrial

  • Ambitious venture: Venture One Real Estate closed on the 2-million-square-foot VenturePark65 project in Crown Point, Ind., with plans for customizable industrial facilities on 137 acres.

  • Rent growth: U.S. in-place industrial rents rose 6.8% year-over-year in October to $8.22 per square foot, a modest six-cent increase from the prior month, per CommercialEdge.

  • Thankful for Amazon: Clarion Partners purchased a 158,340-square-foot Class A industrial facility in Summerville, S.C., for $25.3M, fully leased by Amazon as a distribution hub.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Store closures: U.S. store closures surged to 6,481 in 2024, surpassing last year’s total, as retail bankruptcies pile up.

  • Drive-Thru: Retailers are increasingly adopting smaller, drive-thru-only formats to boost efficiency, reduce costs, and access premium locations with limited space.

  • NYC revival: Manhattan retail is rebounding, with Blackstone's $200M Soho acquisition reflecting soaring rents, declining vacancies, and luxury brands securing flagship properties.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Delinquencies: Office CMBS delinquency rates surged to 9.37% in October, marking a notable jump of 101 basis points and surpassing a 9% threshold not seen since 2012-2013.

  • Riverside acquisition: Dunbar Real Estate acquired the 138,700-square-foot Summit Business Center in Riverside for $19M, highlighting Inland Empire’s appeal amid low office vacancies.

  • Oakland bargain: Harmit Mann acquired The Landing office complex in Oakland for $13M, a 67% discount from its 2019 price, as crime and vacancies reshape the local market.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Giant homebuilders

Lennar's acquisition of Rausch Coleman Homes highlights the growing dominance of giant homebuilders, now commanding over half of U.S. new home closings.

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