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CRE Lending Gains Momentum as Capital Flows Into the Market

Commercial real estate lending surged in Q4 2024, with CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index up 37% year-over-year, driven by abundant capital, strong fundamentals, and increased bank activity.

CRE Lending Gains Momentum as Capital Flows Into the Market

Commercial real estate lending surged in Q4 2024, with CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index up 37% year-over-year, driven by abundant capital, strong fundamentals, and increased bank activity.

Together with

Good morning. Commercial real estate lending surged in Q4 2024, with CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index up 37% year-over-year, driven by abundant capital, strong fundamentals, and increased bank activity.

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🎙️New Episode: Adaptive reuse is reshaping real estate as cities turn underused office spaces into housing—on No Cap, co-hosts Alex Gornik and Jack Stone talk with Victrix Investment’s Anoop Dave and Tim Gordon about the challenges, opportunities, and future of office-to-apartment conversions.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
6,066.44
Pct Chg:
+0.67%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
781.46
Pct Chg:
-0.41%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.523%
Pct Chg:
+0.028
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.328
Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 02/10/2024 market close.

Capital Flows Into the Market

CRE Lending Momentum Picked Up Speed in Q4 2024

Commercial real estate lending surged in Q4 2024, driven by strong fundamentals, a wave of maturing debt, and a deep pool of available capital.

Lending activity jumps: The CBRE Lending Momentum Index rose 21% from Q3 and 37% YoY, closing Q4 2024 at 259—well above the pre-pandemic five-year average of 229. Spreads on commercial mortgage loans averaged 184 basis points (bps), tightening significantly for multifamily loans, which hit their narrowest levels since 2022 at 156 bps.

Banks step up: Banks dominated non-agency loan closings in Q4, capturing 43% market share, up sharply from 18% in Q3, as they benefited from loan payoffs and a more favorable regulatory environment. Life insurance companies followed with 33%, while alternative lenders, including debt funds and mortgage REITs, took 23%. Debt fund origination volume soared 72% year-over-year, reflecting increased risk appetite.

Multifamily lending soars: Government agency lending for multifamily assets surged 87% in Q4 to $53 billion, pushing full-year originations to $120 billion—a 19% annual increase. The CBRE Agency Pricing Index fell to 5.4%, the lowest level since mid-2023, signaling improved borrowing conditions.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Looking ahead: A wave of maturing debt and capital reallocation is expected to fuel refinancing and investment sales in 2025. Top-tier office assets in major CBDs could see a rebound, while lenders are likely to leverage loan sales to maintain liquidity and manage restructured maturities.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • CRE is picking up steam: The LightBox CRE Activity Index surged to 81.2 in January, signaling renewed investor confidence and rising deal flow amid stabilizing market conditions. (sponsored)

  • Secured Series B: Real estate investment platform InvestNext raised $15M in Series B funding, led by Beringea, to enhance compliance automation, investor relations, and capital raising capabilities.

  • BTR rankings: Dallas-Fort Worth has nearly 8.5K build-to-rent homes under construction, trailing only Phoenix, as Texas leads the U.S. in BTR development with 22K units.

  • Optimize your deals: Managing CRE syndications is easier with the right software. We’ve researched the best investment management platforms to help you track deals, engage investors, and optimize performance.

  • Trump targets loophole: President Trump renews efforts to eliminate the carried interest tax break, facing opposition from PE and hedge fund lobbyists despite bipartisan support for reform.

  • Tenants fight back: Detroit renters accuse crypto real estate platform RealT of neglecting repairs, mismanaging properties, and issuing eviction threats as tax delinquencies and vacancies mount.

  • In the DOGEhouse: The US Department of Government Efficiency’s lease exits put $12B in CMBS loans at risk, with DC facing the largest exposure amid rising office vacancies.

  • Union Station deal: Amtrak agreed to pay $505M to control DC’s Union Station, ending a legal battle with Rexmark and advancing plans for a $10B redevelopment.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Loan secured: The Atlanta Housing Authority and Benoit Group got $28.3M to fund Englewood Multifamily, a mixed-income redevelopment replacing public housing in Chosewood Park.

  • Landing financing: Carr Properties and Barings secured funding to redevelop a former suburban DC office site in Alexandria into a mixed-use complex with 200+ apartments and retail.

  • New hire: Multifamily expert Jay Parsons will serve as an economic advisor for Dallas-based JPI, bringing data-driven insights to enhance the firm’s strategic approach to apartment development.

  • Mixed outlook: Equity Residential’s (EQR) 2025 FFO guidance fell short, due to challenges in expansion markets like Atlanta and Denver, while coastal cities like NYC and DC stayed strong.

  • For the kids: Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and FullStack Modular will develop 4.2K student housing beds using modular construction, with the $1B project ready by 2030.

🏭 Industrial

  • Listed for sale: Blackstone’s ShopCore (BX) is selling a 480.7 KSF industrial campus in San Leandro, 78% leased and zoned for advanced manufacturing, amid growing investor interest.

  • Amazon to invest in AI: Amazon (AMZN) plans to spend $100B on cloud computing and data centers in 2025, joining tech giants in a growing AI arms race amid soaring infrastructure demands.

  • New facility: Industrial cable maker Southwire began construction on a 1.2 MSF distribution center near Bremen, Georgia, consolidating operations from its Villa Rica facility.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Biting the dust: Parent company Authentic Brands Group will transfer operations after Liberated Brands filed for bankruptcy, citing inflation, supply chain issues, and declining demand.

  • Revamping San Jose: Hines plans to transform nearly 180 KSF of mostly vacant storefronts into a vibrant shopping and dining hub, enhancing pedestrian engagement and revitalizing the area.

  • Casino lease: Simon Property Group (SPG) signed Live Casino to fill a vacant Lord & Taylor space at The Mall at Rockingham Park, increasing occupancy to 86% as a $262M loan nears maturity.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Betting $1B: Cousins Properties (CUZ) invested nearly $1B in trophy office acquisitions in late 2024, boosting occupancy to 89.2% as demand for high-quality office space strengthens.

  • Third foreclosure: Lender HTLF Bank sued Shaya Prager for defaulting on a $47.5M loan tied to a Minneapolis office tower, marking his third foreclosure in the Normandale Lake complex.

  • Coworking grows: Denver’s coworking market expanded 14% YoY in Q4, with smaller, flexible spaces in demand, while traditional office distress continues to rise.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Deal of the day: Hyatt Hotels (H) is buying Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA) to expand its all-inclusive resort footprint, with plans to sell assets and raise $2B by 2027 to maintain an asset-light strategy.

  • Back in hand: Santikos Enterprises reacquired a 5.9-acre site in San Antonio’s Legacy community after a failed hotel project, lifting restrictions and opening the door for potential redevelopment.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

The total value of data centers in Loudoun County surged 78% YoY, rising from $23.7B in 2024 to $42.3B in 2025. Loudoun County now hosts 49.4 MSF of data centers, including built facilities and those with approved site plans.

Data centers contribute to local tax revenue, with Loudoun expecting $895M in 2025.

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