Q125 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

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Jordan B.
March 18, 2025

Together with

Good morning. Thank you to everyone who contributed to the Q1 2025 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index. Your insights help us track the pulse of commercial real estate, from capital access to shifting asset values.

This quarter’s survey—based on 1,000+ sector responses from 500 investors—shows a market holding steady but with cooling optimism.

Investors remain bullish on Industrial and Multifamily, yet broader enthusiasm has softened. High interest rates and policy uncertainty continue to shape investment strategies. Let’s dive into the key takeaways.

The Fear and Greed Index is brought to you by InvestNext—raise capital, manage investments, and streamline investor relations all-in-one platform.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

5,675.12

Pct Chg:
+0.64%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

783.34

Pct Chg:
+1.56%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.312%

Pct Chg:
+0.004

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

4.328

Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 03/17/2024 market close.

Investor Sentiment

Q125 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

The latest Q1 2025 JBREC + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index is in, offering a fresh look at investor sentiment across commercial real estate. Based on 1,000+ sector responses from 500 investors, the survey tracks shifting confidence in the market.

By the numbers: The index held steady at 56, signaling an expansionary market, but optimism cooled. Investors remain most bullish on Industrial and Multifamily, though broader enthusiasm pulled back quarter over quarter.

For context: Index values below 45 indicate a contracting commercial real estate (CRE) market, while those above 55 suggest expansion. Values between 45 and 55 reflect a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers.

Q125 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

Zoom in: Interest rates and capital access remain the biggest hurdles for 42% of CRE investors, with rates averaging 6.9% in Q125. Investor sentiment toward capital availability worsened, with 30% reporting tougher conditions versus just 11% seeing improvement. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts has kept investors on edge.

Wait-and-see: Most (64%) of investors kept their CRE exposure unchanged in Q1 2025, continuing a five-quarter trend of hesitation. Despite uncertainty, return targets remain steady, with unlevered IRRs averaging 9%-10%. Office sector investors show the widest variance in return expectations, reflecting the divide between high- and low-quality assets.

Investor optimism drops: The Expected CRE Investment Strategy Index fell from 68 to 66, marking the first decline in the survey’s history. Multifamily confidence slipped, with projected asset value growth dropping from 3% to 2%.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The big picture: High rates and policy uncertainty are keeping CRE investors cautious. While Industrial and Multifamily remain top picks, most are waiting for clearer signals from the Fed and policymakers before making moves.

📥 Download the Full Survey Results

Get the 28-page survey chartbook for deeper insights on investor sentiment, capital trends, and challenges—plus a sector-by-sector breakdown with exclusive commentary.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Emerging niche: Wellness real estate development is no longer just a hospitality trend—it’s the future of multifamily living, projected to reach $912.6B by 2028, growing at an impressive 15.8% annually. (sponsored)
Federal land proposal: Trump’s plan to develop 650M acres of federal land into affordable housing could help ease the US housing shortage but faces logistical and political challenges.
Divesting assets: Blackstone (BX), CPPIB, and Rialto are selling $395M in NYC real estate loans as part of divesting assets from Signature Bank's 2023 debt acquisition.
Tariff impacts: OECD warns higher US tariffs will slow global growth, raise inflation, and lower real incomes, particularly impacting Mexico, Canada, and the US economy.
DC budget reinstated: The US Senate passed a revised spending bill to allow DC to use its 2025 budget, pending approval by the House of Representatives.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Texas apartment boom: Submarkets in Frisco, Rockwall, and East Austin saw over 200% apartment inventory growth, driven by population booms and infrastructure development.
The British are coming: QuadReal expands its US portfolio with the $240M purchase of two Colorado manufactured housing communities, enhancing its position in key growth markets.
Foreclosure battle: Dalan Management filed to foreclose on four of Steve Croman’s properties, totaling $27.5M in debt, following the purchase of his loan portfolio.
Going with the flow: Adam Neumann’s Flow secured a $51M loan for a $71.5M El Portal site purchase, partnering with Canada Global to develop over 2.38K apartments and commercial space.
Pasadena push: Pasadena introduced an ordinance offering perks to CRE owners converting their spaces into residential units, aiming to meet state-mandated housing goals by 2029.
Affordable Sin City: Oikos Development moved ahead with a 22-unit affordable housing project in Las Vegas, despite neighborhood opposition, with rents ranging from $442 to $1,051.

🏭 Industrial

California coasting: Rockefeller Group breaks into the East Bay industrial market with a 435K SF distribution center in Antioch, near the Port of Oakland, slated for 2026 delivery.
Kansas City portfolio: Artemis Real Estate Partners and Arch Street Capital acquire a 2.5M SF Class A industrial portfolio in Logistics Park Kansas City, fully leased to tenants like Amazon and Walmart.
Refinancing secured: MCA Realty secured $52M refinancing for MCA Freeway Industrial Park in Riverside, CA, with a sub-6% fixed-rate loan and substantial cashout for the 481K SF property.

🏬 RETAIL

Sales growth slows: Retail sales rose 0.2% in February, underperforming expectations, while online spending and healthcare retail showed gains despite broader economic concerns.
Atlanta expansion: Wayfair (W) leased a former Walmart in Atlanta for its second large-format store, expanding its physical retail footprint to showcase online-listed large items.

🏢 OFFICE

Looming deadline: DOGE plans to end 800 federal office leases by June to save $500M, with some agencies seeking exemptions due to tight relocation timelines.
Expanding office footprint: Blackstone (BX) is boosting office real estate debt investments despite a mixed market, with a focus on high-quality properties.
CMBS loan extension: A $525M CMBS loan secured by 150 East 42nd Street in NYC has been extended until 2027 after defaulting due to Wells Fargo's planned departure.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Luxury hospitality shift: With a move toward asset-light models, more hotel brands are franchising, leading to a rise in high-end, management-light luxury hotel operations.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Credit conditions remain tight across all CRE sectors, though investors across asset classes note significant improvement in their ability to access capital compared to 1 year ago.