- Industrial investment sales hit $68.4B through November, the highest since 2022.
- Cap rates diverge between core logistics (4.5–6.5%) and secondary properties (7–8%).
- Average sale price softened to $98.75 PSF, while asking prices held firm at $121.84 PSF.
- Vacancy rates stabilized at 7.1–7.5%, with absorption and rent growth showing resilience.
Industrial Sales Strengthen
Globe St reports that industrial sales momentum surged to $68.4B in 2025, marking a robust year for the sector, according to Crexi’s latest market analysis. Investors continue to favor modern logistics assets, even as market dynamics reveal a notable split between top-tier and commodity properties.
Cap Rate Divergence
The industrial sector is experiencing a clear split in cap rates and sale pricing. Core logistics facilities in growth markets traded at cap rates of 4.5% to 6.5%, while lower-quality and vacant assets saw rates of 7% to 8%. Overall, closed-deal cap rates averaged 7.33%, and asking cap rates compressed to 7.28% by November.
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Pricing and Leasing Trends
Average sale prices dipped 2% to $98.75 PSF, holding steady year-over-year, while asking prices dropped 0.4% but remained 9.6% higher than a year ago. On the leasing front, asking rents averaged $14.20 PSF in December, with effective rents down 2.9% month-over-month yet still up 5.4% from last year. This signals increasing tenant leverage in negotiations, though prime assets keep robust pricing.
Market Fundamentals Stabilize
Industrial vacancy rates held steady at 7.1% to 7.5% in Q3, the highest since 2013, thanks to tapered speculative construction and rising absorption, which reached 45.1 MSF for the quarter. Build-to-suit assets now account for 39% of the construction pipeline as developers seek stability. This trend also aligns with a broader investor pivot toward smaller, more resilient markets amid shifting performance in larger metro areas. Nearly 60% of US markets posted positive rent growth, with national asking rents rising 1.7% year-over-year to $10.10 PSF.
What’s Next
Industrial sales momentum is expected to continue into early 2026, with opportunities centered on well-located logistics facilities in supply-constrained submarkets. Crexi forecasts fundamentals will stabilize further as demand concentrates on modern assets and speculative pipeline slows. Investors are advised to target infrastructure-rich areas and build-to-suit developments for the best near-term growth potential.
