- Retail and dining visits fell over the summer and remain weak, signaling a broader consumer slowdown beyond seasonal fluctuations.
- The spending pullback is most noticeable among middle- and low-income groups, while high earners continue to spend — but often outside the US.
- The slowdown is national in scope, with formerly resilient states like California, New York, Idaho, and Utah all seeing traffic declines.
- The holiday season is likely to see continued softening in consumer activity as discretionary spending tightens further.
Retail and dining activity are starting to show a more sustained slowdown, reports GlobeSt. The trend is becoming more noticeable as the holiday season approaches, with foot traffic declining across many states. According to new analysis from Placer.ai, a once-temporary dip in consumer visits may be evolving into a broader, more structural slowdown.
Diverging Spending Patterns
The slowdown is being driven by a widening divide in consumer behavior. High-income households are still spending, especially on international travel. Meanwhile, budget-conscious middle- and low-income consumers are cutting back. This shift is dragging down overall retail and dining performance.
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Nationwide Pullback
The slowdown is not isolated to any one region. States like Idaho and Utah, which posted year-over-year growth in dining visits during the first half of 2025, shifted into negative territory by July and August. Meanwhile, New York and California saw year-over-year declines worsen over the summer, dropping to -2.3% and -2%, respectively. Only Vermont and Rhode Island posted increases in dining visits during the same period.
Retail visits followed a similar pattern, weakening even in regions that had shown consumer strength earlier this year, such as the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Vermont and Delaware were rare exceptions.
Why It Matters
The analysis suggests that depending too heavily on affluent consumers to drive retail recovery poses risks — especially as that segment shifts spending abroad. Early-year purchases may also have been accelerated by tariff concerns, front-loading demand that is now tapering off.
What’s Next
With the holidays approaching, retailers may see further pullback, particularly from households already adjusting their budgets for seasonal expenses. The slowdown in discretionary spending poses challenges for brands relying on year-end surges to meet revenue targets.
Expect continued caution from shoppers — and potentially muted holiday sales compared to prior years.
