- CRE Activity Index jumped 28% month over month to 110.7 in January.
- Listings, appraisals, and due diligence activity all saw solid year-over-year gains.
- CRE lending and transaction activity show growing investor confidence amid market volatility.
- Institutional capital remains active, with 49 deals above $100M closing in January.
CRE Activity Index Rebounds Sharply
The LightBox CRE Activity Index experienced a significant rebound in January 2026, climbing 28% to reach 110.7. This recovery follows December’s year-end slowdown and marks the first return to triple digits since October, outperforming the level seen in January 2025.
The index, which measures activity in property listings, appraisals, and environmental due diligence, signals renewed transaction momentum and improved lender participation, despite continued macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed labor market data.
Listing, Appraisal, and Due Diligence Metrics Improve
Average daily property listings jumped 81% from December and rose 38% year over year. The surge signals more sellers entering the market and a growing pool of investors pursuing deals.
Meanwhile, environmental due diligence activity dipped slightly. Phase I ESA volume fell 4% from December but remained 17% higher than last January. The increase suggests a larger pipeline of transactions moving toward closing.
Appraisal activity also softened slightly month over month. Volumes fell 5% from December but climbed 40% compared with a year ago. The strong annual gain shows lenders remain active in issuing new loans and refinancing existing debt. However, shifting underwriting standards and tighter valuation scrutiny continue to shape how lenders assess risk, particularly in office markets where appraisal gaps have created financing challenges.
Get Smarter about what matters in CRE
Stay ahead of trends in commercial real estate with CRE Daily – the free newsletter delivering everything you need to start your day in just 5-minutes
Lending Activity and Capital Flows Build Market Confidence
CRE lending finished 2025 in recovery mode, with steady refinancing, resilient bank credit quality, and multi-year highs for CMBS issuance. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts a 20.5% rise in originations and refinancing in 2026, with potential for volumes to near pre-pandemic levels.
Data shows institutional buyers remain engaged—January saw 145 transactions above $50M, including 49 deals over $100M, totaling $24.1B. Transaction volume moderated from December’s highs but remains healthy for the sector.
Differentiated CRE Market with Cautious Optimism
Despite headwinds—including loan maturities and equity market volatility—the CRE market is showing gradual improvement. Data center construction stands out amid broader building slowdowns, and sector-level momentum remains robust for industrial, multifamily, healthcare, and well-located office and retail assets. Narrowing bid-ask spreads and more diversified buyer pools are supporting pricing and activity.
With macro conditions still uncertain, disciplined underwriting and localized market insights remain crucial. Overall, the strong CRE Activity Index reading for January underscores a measured, steady improvement and deeper market stability heading into 2026.
