- Natural gas has emerged as a stopgap power solution for energy-hungry data centers, but gas turbine shortages could derail this transition.
- Turbine lead times now stretch past 2029, prompting cancellations of major U.S. gas projects and undermining confidence in near-term availability.
- Manufacturers like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are holding off on ramping up production, citing uncertainty in long-term demand.
A Popular Fix Hits a Snag
With skyrocketing electricity demand driven by AI and hyperscale development, the U.S. data center industry has increasingly turned to on-site and behind-the-meter natural gas generation as a faster alternative to utility grid hookups. Utilities have followed suit, proposing new gas plants to supplement strained power infrastructure.
But now, this momentum faces a critical bottleneck: a global shortage of gas turbines. The lead time for securing turbines has ballooned, pushing deliveries well into the next decade, according to reporting from Heatmap.
Delays and Cancellations Begin
The impact is already being felt. Developers like Engie have scrapped large gas plant projects in Texas, citing “equipment procurement constraints.” Meanwhile, top turbine suppliers GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power — who dominate the global market — have warned customers to plan 7–8 years ahead to secure equipment.
Despite booming orders — GE Vernova’s turbine bookings jumped 66% year-over-year — manufacturers remain cautious. They’re not expanding capacity, fearing that the current demand surge, fueled largely by speculative data center projects, may not last.
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Cautious Optimism—or Skepticism?
Executives at turbine manufacturers have cited multiple reasons for resisting expansion: ongoing supply chain constraints, strategic backlog monetization (i.e., queue jumping for a premium), and a broader skepticism that the projected wave of self-powered data centers will fully materialize.
That concern is echoed by industry insiders, with many developers and utility officials warning that a significant portion of power requests from data center operators are speculative and may never break ground.
Long-Term Demand, Short-Term Pain
The data center industry could add up to 50 GW of new gas-fired power by 2030, boosting power sector gas demand by nearly 17%, per S&P Global. Tech giants like Meta and OpenAI are pairing campuses with custom gas plants while major colocation providers — including Vantage and EdgeConneX — pursue on-site gas infrastructure.
One bullish forecast predicts 30% of U.S. data centers could be self-powered by 2030. But with turbine availability already years behind demand, those plans may be forced to slow down.
Why It Matters
For a data center industry already struggling with extended lead times on transformers, switchgear, and diesel generators, the turbine shortage adds yet another complication. It’s a stark reminder that while natural gas may offer a faster path to power on paper, the real-world logistics tell a different story.
Until the supply chain catches up or an alternative solution emerges, the natural gas pivot may remain out of reach for many developers looking for quick power.
