- Grocery-anchored retail is driving DFW’s record-setting retail performance, with occupancy expected to hit 95.4% in 2026, marking a fourth straight year of historic highs.
- More than 82% of new retail space in 2025 was grocery-related, reflecting continued expansion from chains like H-E-B, Kroger, and Walmart.
- Retail absorption in DFW is projected to exceed 3M SF in 2026, as fitness centers, pet stores, bookstores, and specialty grocers backfill former big-box vacancies.
The Year of the Grocer—Part III
Weitzman is dubbing 2026 the third installment in DFW’s “Year of the Grocer” trend, as grocery chains continue to dominate the metro’s new retail development. Following two years of record-breaking occupancy, DFW is on track to hit another milestone with retail space 95.4% occupied by year-end, reports Bisnow.
Grocers Dominate New Construction
Of the 2.4M SF of retail space delivered in 2025, more than 82% was tied to grocers, according to Weitzman’s latest market forecast. That includes new locations from H-E-B, Kroger, Sprouts, and Walmart—up from just under 50% the year before. Seven new grocery-anchored centers opened in 2024, and 18 more supermarkets launched in 2025. Another 34 stores are expected between 2026 and 2027.
Stability Despite Headwinds
The boom in grocery-anchored retail pushed overall occupancy to 95.3% in 2025—its highest level on record—while community shopping centers anchored by grocers held steady at 96.4%. The momentum has held even amid challenges like inflation, rising construction costs, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
“We are currently in a market where a well-located box vacancy will not stay vacant for very long,” said Bob Young, Executive Managing Director at Weitzman.
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Absorption and Inventory Growth
Retail absorption hit 2.5M SF in 2025. Weitzman expects that number to rise above 3M SF in 2026. The region’s total inventory reached 202M SF last year. That growth came from new construction and the removal of underused space. Grocery stores now use new layouts and features to keep shoppers inside longer. These updates support leasing demand across retail centers.
Who Else Is Expanding
Beyond grocers, fitness centers and specialty retailers are driving leasing activity. Brands like EoS Fitness, Planet Fitness, Trader Joe’s, PetSmart, Cavender’s, and Barnes & Noble helped fill former big-box vacancies and are expected to continue expanding in 2026.
Texas Retail Remains Strong
While DFW leads the way in terms of overall retail space, other major Texas metros are keeping pace. San Antonio and Houston posted similarly strong occupancies in 2025, while Austin topped them all with a 97% rate across nearly 54M SF.
“Without a doubt, Texas retail is firing on all cylinders,” Young said.
Why It Matters
DFW’s retail market remains strong, especially in grocery-anchored centers. This highlights a lasting trend in post-pandemic retail. Essential services, local convenience, and experiential retail continue to outperform. This holds true even as economic pressures increase.
What’s Next
Retail development in DFW is set to accelerate in 2026, with 3.8M SF in new construction planned—the most since 2018. With grocers leading the way, developers and investors are likely to stay bullish on neighborhood retail, especially in growth corridors.
