Only 50% of New Yorkers Say They Plan To Stay in City
A new affordable housing project for low-income individuals is making headlines and challenging the status quo.
Jordan B.
March 24, 2024
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Good morning. Welcome to the weekend edition of CRE Daily.
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📰 Feature: The pulse of NYC seems to be waning
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⏪ Catch up: The most-read stories from the week
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👍️ Reviews: 4 new product reviews on CREDaily.com
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📈 Chart: Spike in 2024 loan multifamily maturities
Today’s issue is brought to you by Bullpen.
Big Apple Blues
50% of New Yorkers Contemplate Leaving Amid Quality of Life Concerns
A recent study by the Citizens Budget Commission reveals a stark downturn in New Yorkers’ perceptions of life in the city since 2017, hinting at ongoing struggles in real estate and broader urban challenges.
Quality of life: The pulse of New York City seems to be waning, with only 30% of residents rating their quality of life as excellent or good, a significant drop from 50% in 2017. This dissatisfaction is mirrored in the readiness of just half of the respondents to commit to living in the city for the next five years.
Concerns: Public safety matters in New York have intensified, with satisfaction dropping to 37% from 50%. Subway safety confidence has significantly declined, with daytime safety perception falling to just over 49% from 81.5% in 2017 and nighttime safety perception dropping to 22%. Additionally, New Yorkers rate city services and the wise use of tax dollars lower, with only 11% approving of fiscal management, down from 21% in 2017.
Impact on RE: New York’s office vacancy rate has hit a record high of over 14%, impacted by the rise of hybrid work models. Concerns over public safety and quality of life are major hurdles to the city’s economic recovery and office occupancy, also affecting retail and services. Compounding these issues, New York leads the nation in population out-migration, with around 158 investment firms managing over $1 trillion in assets moving out of the state between early 2020 and early 2023.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Zoom out: Ruth Colp-Haber, CEO of Wharton Property Advisors, wrote to CoStar that the CBC report highlights a crucial issue for NYC’s real estate: the city must offer a high quality of life, including safety and affordable housing, to retain talent and compete with other cities, especially now that remote work allows people to choose where they live. Without addressing these concerns, NYC risks losing residents, jobs, and businesses.
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⏪ Weekend Wrap-Up
Catch up on the most clickworthy stories of the week.
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Maturity challenges: A recent MSCI report reveals that U.S. multifamily loan losses surged to 16% from just 5% in the prior two years.
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Change in the air: Brookfield (BN) CEO Bruce Flatt has been at the helm of the global asset manager’s operations for over 20 years, and he believes CRE is reaching an inflection point.
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Golden exodus: The ultra-wealthy are selling Gold Coast homes at a loss in Chicago, including Ken Griffin, with some properties seeing over a $3M loss.
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Looming crisis: The regional banking crisis looms large due to $900B in underwater CRE loans, which means around 300 banks are at risk.
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BTR boom: The build-to-rent market is sky-high with rising single-family rents nearing pre-pandemic levels, offering affordability and comfort to renters.
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Stay the course: The Fed maintained interest rates amidst higher inflation, with Powell indicating three possible cuts in 2024 to achieve the 2% inflation goal.
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Pain ahead: Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), pooling high-risk debts into bonds of varied risk, face a surge in distressed assets—up fourfold to 7.4% in just seven months.
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Broker branding: In the changing CRE landscape, top brokers like Knakal and Stacom are leaving big firms to start their own ventures.
👍 Product Reviews
Compare reviews and prices on the top CRE software, products, and services.
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📈 CHART OF THE DAY
The amount of loan maturities in 2024 was originally expected to be $659 billion, but that has increased 41% to $929 billion due to 2023 loan extensions.
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