Black Friday Signals Return of In-Person Shopping
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 126 million Americans shopped in stores over Thanksgiving weekend, marking a shift back to in-person retail.
Good morning. This year's Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday shopping spree brought 197 million shoppers, exceeding expectations despite a shorter holiday shopping window and an influx of early sales.
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Market Snapshot
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*Data as of 12/05/2024 market close.
RETAIL TRENDS
197 Million Consumers Hit Stores and Sites Over Thanksgiving Weekend
Holiday shopping kicked off strong as record numbers hit Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals, per the National Retail Federation (NRF).
By the numbers: This year’s five-day shopping window saw slightly fewer participants than 2023’s record 200 million but exceeded NRF projections of 183 million. Shoppers spent 15% more online on Black Friday compared to last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, with in-store sales rising modestly by 0.7% for an overall growth of 3.4%.
Online vs. in-store: Roughly 126 million people visited physical stores during the holiday weekend, narrowly outpacing the 124 million who shopped online. Black Friday saw the highest traffic both online and in stores, with many shoppers seizing early discounts.
Zoom out: NRF forecasts holiday spending to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%, reaching record levels of $979.5 billion to $989 billion. Despite the weekend's shopping success, consumers reported having 52% of their holiday shopping left to complete.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
The price is right: Consumers are more deal-savvy than ever, making discounts a must for brands aiming to capture holiday dollars. Retailers that adapt to evolving spending habits, offering both value and convenience, are best positioned to thrive.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
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Emerging cities: Smaller US metros like Madison, Fargo, and Provo lead the way as affordable, livable alternatives to major urban centers, blending job growth, culture, and outdoor amenities.
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Raise capital faster: With Agora’s Smart Questionnaire you can transform complex subscription documents into interactive, pre-filled questionnaires, making it easy for investors to review and sign. (sponsored)
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Strategic acquisitions: Blackstone's (BX) real estate head highlights Europe and India as prime targets for investment during global market uncertainty, capitalizing on logistics and data infrastructure.
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Fraud fallout: Nightingale CEO Elie Schwartz faces federal charges for allegedly embezzling $54M from CrowdStreet investors.
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Rate cut uncertainty: Fed officials remain noncommittal on a December rate cut, citing economic variability, unimplemented policies, and the need for careful recalibration.
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Institutional momentum: Large investors are seizing opportunities in CRE, with major deals in multifamily, retail, and adaptive reuse signaling renewed confidence amidst stabilized valuations.
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Estate tax evasion: Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang uses complex trust and charitable strategies to shield $8B from estate taxes, showing how the ultrawealthy preserve dynastic wealth.
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Crypto-friendly pick: President-elect Trump plans to nominate Paul Atkins as SEC chair, signaling a deregulatory stance favorable to digital assets and a rollback of strict post-crisis financial reforms.
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Debt opportunity: SL Green Realty (SLG) secured $250M from Canadian pension fund CDPQ for a $1B debt fund targeting distressed office and retail credit in New York City.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
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Modular savings: Thrive Living’s modular construction for its Chinatown apartment project is expected to cut costs by 15%, delivering 376 units aimed at workforce and affordable housing.
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Antitrust pushback: RealPage seeks the dismissal of the DOJ’s antitrust lawsuit over its rent-pricing algorithm, arguing that there is insufficient evidence of monopoly power.
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Living at the mall: Developers are transforming underutilized malls into residential hubs, addressing the US housing crisis while blending housing with retail and amenities.
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HUD nomination: Industry leaders commend Trump’s pick of Scott Turner as HUD Secretary, highlighting his work with Opportunity Zones, while housing advocates urge for a focus on affordability.
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San Antonio deal: Harvest Equities acquired The Place at Castle Hills, a 680-unit renovated multifamily property, as multifamily transaction activity in the region shows signs of slowing.
🏭 Industrial
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Stockpiling surge: Anticipated tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China are driving construction firms to stockpile materials, boosting demand for industrial outdoor storage.
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Deal dropped: Prologis (PLD) backed out of a $24M bid for the former Raiders practice facility in Oakland after due diligence, leaving the city facing a $115M budget deficit.
🏬 RETAIL
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Pharmacy closures: Independent pharmacies are facing twice the closure rate of big chains, as economic pressures hit underserved rural and low-income areas hardest.
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Brooklyn redevelopment: A Laboz-led group acquires Downtown Brooklyn’s historic Macy’s store, planning to transform the 440 KSF property into world-class retail and entertainment.
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Restaurant revival: Former TGI Fridays CEO Ray Blanchette bid $30.5M to acquire 9 locations, including high-performing airport eateries, as the chain restructures under Chapter 11.
🏢 OFFICE
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Offices evolve: National office vacancy rates dipped to 20% in Q3, but peaks are expected in late 2025 or early 2026, as CBDs remain central to regional trends with wide variance across markets.
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Foreclosure battle: RFR is facing foreclosure on 17 State St., a 42-story Manhattan office tower, after failing to refinance a $180M mortgage, adding to a string of financial disputes.
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Nuclear shift: Brookfield Properties (BN) transitions its 8 MSF DC-area office portfolio to nuclear power, slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 85% while aligning with tenant sustainability goals.
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Federal downsizing: The GSA plans to offload 8 buildings totaling 1.5 MSF across 7 states and DC, aiming to save taxpayers $475M over a decade while exploring adaptive reuse opportunities.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
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Travel surge: Post-Thanksgiving air travel hit a new record with over 3.09M TSA check-ins on 12/01, while US hotel occupancy rose modestly YoY in November, though still behind pre-pandemic levels.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
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