CBRE: Multifamily Market Stabilizes After Two-Year Decline
CBRE reports positive signs of multifamily market stabilization, with improving fundamentals and rising investor confidence.
Good morning. CBRE reports positive signs of multifamily market stabilization, with improving fundamentals and rising investor confidence as the multifamily vacancy rate stays steady at 5.5% in Q2.
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Market Snapshot
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*Data as of 8/20/2024 market close.
MULTIFAMILY Momentum
US Multifamily Market Finally Showing Signs of Stabilization
The U.S. multifamily market is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged period of rising vacancy rates and slow rent growth, according to CBRE's latest report.
Vacancy rate stability: After two years of quarter-on-quarter increases, the national multifamily vacancy rate held steady at 5.5% in Q2 2024. This stability suggests a shift towards recovery, with CBRE projecting a decline towards the long-term average of 5% in the coming quarters as the market continues to absorb excess supply.
Rent growth: Rents grew by just 0.3% year-on-year in Q2 2024, down slightly from the 0.4% growth in Q1. However, CBRE expects rent growth to accelerate in Q4 2024, driven by rising occupancy rates. Net absorption reached 126,600 units in the second quarter, outpacing the completion of 119,400 new units—a positive sign for rent increases going forward.
Regional trends: While national trends are optimistic, challenges persist, especially in the Sun Belt areas facing an influx of new supply. Markets like Austin, Jacksonville, and Atlanta reported contracting annual rent growth, reflecting the impact of pandemic oversupply. In contrast, Northeastern and Midwestern markets with controlled supply saw stable rent growth.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Big picture: Investor confidence is on the rise, with multifamily investment volume surging 82% quarter-on-quarter to $38.3 billion. However, CBRE notes that the market is still not fully back to pre-pandemic transaction levels, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025 and beyond.
✍️ Editor’s Picks
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On the rise: Office CMBS delinquency rates have surpassed 8% for the first time since 2013, while retail and lodging rates have slightly decreased.
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Recession fears: Goldman Sachs has reversed its recession prediction, lowering the chance from 25% to 20% due to positive economic indicators.
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Housing boom battle: Northern NJ housing construction soars, drawing 75K NY migrants in 2022, outpacing NYC itself with 224.6K units since 2010.
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Residential revival: Office-to-residential conversions continue to gain momentum in post-pandemic NYC, surging from 34 to 69 potential conversions in a year.
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Record enrollment: The University of Arkansas anticipates record-breaking enrollment this fall, prompting plans to build two new dormitories to address housing shortages.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
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Texas cools down: The Texas multifamily market faces challenges with new supply and high interest rates. Big institutional investors like KKR see opportunities amid uncertainty.
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Investment soars: Vancouver's Onni Group secured a $240M construction loan for a 60-story residential tower with 685 units in Downtown LA.
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Multifamily marvel: Atlanta-based Cortland closed its $1.5B Cortland Enhanced Value Fund VI, surpassing targets and attracting global investors.
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Finding financing: A joint venture secured $87M in construction financing for a 22-story apartment building at 540 Third Avenue in Manhattan.
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Refinancing success: PMG and Greybrook secure $178M to refinance Society Wynwood, a 10-story property in Miami's Wynwood neighborhood.
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Holy housing: The LA Archdiocese teams up with a nonprofit to build affordable homes on church land, debuting a 74-unit project in East Hollywood.
🏭 Industrial
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Major acquisitions: EQT Exeter Real Estate Income Trust Inc. acquired two industrial properties in Middletown, PA, and Portland, TN, for over $245M.
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Industrial expansion: KKR & Co. (KKR) acquired an industrial portfolio of 2 MSF across 6 logistics assets with average 35-foot clear heights for $377M.
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Shipping surge: The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are once again leading in US import traffic, with LA handling 940K TEUs (+37%), and Long Beach seeing 882K TEUs (+53%) in July.
🏬 RETAIL
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Staying put: Christie's renews its 400 KSF Rockefeller Center HQ lease for 25 years in an undisclosed deal, amid Midtown’s $78.73 PSF rents.
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Mixed-use marvel: Procopio Companies secured $41.4M for a 57 Main project in Marlborough, MA, that will feature 92 luxury apartments with retail space.
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Fashion frenzy: Dallas retail occupancy levels are at a record 95.2%, surpassing peak levels from the '90s, as popular Japanese clothing brand Uniqlo is set to open its first DFW store at the Galleria Mall.
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Retail realities: Miami International Mall, owned by Simon Property Group (SPG), saw its value drop from $391M to $159M, or a 59% decline.
🏢 OFFICE
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Banking on space: Bank of America (BAC) just signed a 10-year, 553.8 KSF lease renewal at Hallmark Center I in Addison, TX.
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Greener move: CISA's new green HQ in DC at St. Elizabeth’s West Campus will be a 630 KSF building, aiming for LEED Gold certification.
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Policy vs. practice: Up to 80% of companies have return-to-office policies, but only 17% enforce them, impacting office attendance and employee behavior.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
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Refinancing riches: Loews Corporation (L) to receive $305M to refinance a Miami Beach hotel with 790 rooms and 46 KSF of meeting space.
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📈 CHART OF THE DAY
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