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Commercial & Multifamily Mortgage Debt Hits $4.79T

Multifamily mortgage debt surged in Q4 2024, according to MBA, outpacing overall CRE debt growth as government-backed lenders and life insurers took the lead.

Commercial & Multifamily Mortgage Debt Hits $4.79T

Multifamily mortgage debt surged in Q4 2024, according to MBA, outpacing overall CRE debt growth as government-backed lenders and life insurers took the lead.

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Good morning. Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt continues to climb, reaching nearly $4.8 trillion by the end of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

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Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
5,614.66
Pct Chg:
-1.07%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
779.74
Pct Chg:
-0.56%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.285%
Pct Chg:
+0.004
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.328
Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 03/18/2024 market close.

RESEARCH

Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Rises in Q4 2024

Multifamily mortgage debt surged in Q4 2024, according to MBA, outpacing overall CRE debt growth as government-backed lenders and life insurers took the lead.

By the numbers: Total mortgage debt outstanding jumped $172B (3.7%) YoY, reaching $4.79T. In Q4 alone, debt increased by $50.7B (1.1%). Multifamily debt saw the biggest gains, rising $38.9B (1.8%) for the quarter and $111.0B (5.4%) for the year, now totaling $2.16T.

Who’s holding the debt? Commercial banks and thrifts hold the largest share of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt at $1.8T, accounting for 38% of the total market. Agency and GSE portfolios, plus MBS, hold $1.1T (22%). Life insurers account for $779B (16%), while CMBS, CDOs, and other ABS issues hold $626B (13%).

Multifamily trends: Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS dominate multifamily debt, holding $1.1T (49%). Commercial banks come in at $629B (29%), followed by life insurers with $255B (12%). Life insurers saw the biggest annual increase, growing holdings 9.3% ($67B).

What’s driving the growth? Government-backed lenders fueled 56% of multifamily debt growth in 2024. Life insurers were the fastest-growing commercial mortgage holders, driving 39% of the annual increase. Banks, however, took a cautious approach, with holdings rising just 1% over the year.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Zoom out: Multifamily mortgage debt is still on the rise, led by government-backed financing and life insurers, while banks remain hesitant. The big question: Will this momentum continue, or will economic shifts in 2025 slow the pace?

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Your CRE event roadmap: Map out your year with the ultimate guide to the top CRE conferences, networking forums, and investment summits.

  • Sell it like: Ryan Serhant is expanding into commercial real estate sales and marketing, leveraging technology and social media to trade buildings.

  • Special servicing surge: Office and retail loans primarily drove the CMBS special servicing rate surge, climbing 45 bps to 10.32% in February.

  • Stadium-sized offer: Blake Investment Partners made a $260M cash offer for Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, including $60M for repairs and plans for a mixed-use redevelopment post-2028.

  • Tariffs raise costs: Tariffs on imported materials like lumber and appliances are bumping up construction and remodeling costs, potentially adding $7.5K–$10K to new home prices.

  • Rate cuts expected: Economists forecast two Fed rate cuts in 2025, starting in September, amid slower growth and persistent inflation concerns tied to Trump’s trade policies.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Shaking things up: Bill Pulte changed the Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) boards, appointing himself chairman and adding new members, including a SpaceX engineer.

  • Easier to rent: The national rent-to-income ratio has dropped to 27.6%, driven by rising wages and home inventory, but affordability remains a real challenge, especially in high-cost metros.

  • Hitting new highs: Manhattan rents hit a record $4.5K, while Brooklyn and Northwest Queens also saw serious growth, with bidding wars surging by over 30%.

  • Dallas living: Kairoi Residential landed $62M in refinancing for its Boheme apartments in Oak Cliff, with rent growth expected as the Dallas multifamily pipeline slows.

🏭 Industrial

  • Expanding in Houston: Americold (COLD) acquired a $127M cold storage facility in Baytown, TX, adding 35.7K pallet positions and expanding its US warehouse capacity.

  • Betting on smaller: Chicago developers are targeting small-scale industrial properties under 50K SF to meet growing demand for last-mile facilities, capitalizing on limited supply and higher rents.

  • Denver slowdown: The Denver industrial pipeline slows as vacancies peak, with builders focused on preleased or build-to-suit projects, which should tighten supply and drive up rents.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Music City deal: Regency Centers (REG) bought Brentwood Place for $119M, expanding its Nashville portfolio with a 320K SF property anchored by Nordstrom Rack, Total Wine, and TJ Maxx.

  • Brand reinvention: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) opens its first House of Sport stores, averaging 120K–140K SF and offering unique amenities like rock climbing walls and ice rinks.

  • Last-ditch effort: Dallas officials met with Saks executives in a final attempt to keep Neiman Marcus’ downtown flagship open, but Saks maintained its decision to close remains unchanged.

  • Going private: Sycamore Partners' $23.7B acquisition of Walgreens could lead to store closures, lease renegotiations, and property repurposing, significantly reshaping its real estate strategy.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Not looking great: Paramount (PGRE) paid millions to CEO Albert Behler’s companies last year, raising concerns over compensation and related-party transactions.

  • Expanding to Irving: Nasdaq opened its first regional HQ in Irving, Texas, focusing on financial crime management and technology, signaling Dallas’ growing role in the financial sector.

  • To the highest bidder: RXR Realty (RXR) defaulted on a $315M mortgage, with Barings acquiring the 340 Madison Ave. office tower for $161M after a foreclosure auction.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Shifting Spring Break: Miami Beach’s efforts to calm spring break crowds have led to higher occupancy in hotels catering to families and corporate travelers, despite lower demand from partygoers.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Q125 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

The Q125 Fear and Greed Survey indicates that investors perceive retail asset values increased by 1% year-over-year in 1Q25, representing the second straight quarter of growth. Industrial investors view asset values as stable year-over-year, which is a significant enhancement compared to the previous quarter.

Although asset values in the Office sector dropped by 14% YOY, this decline is milder than in previous quarters, suggesting a positive trend.

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