Loan Extensions Hit Record $384B as Lenders Keep Kicking the Can

Nearly half of 2025’s CRE loan maturities were pushed from prior years, as extend-and-pretend remains the go-to move for lenders.

Jordan B.
March 24, 2025

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Good morning. Lenders extended a record $384B in commercial real estate loans into 2025—marking another year of "extend-and-pretend" over forced resolutions.

Today’s issue is brought to you by USREM—your gateway to flexible, off-market real estate investing.

🎙️ No Cap Podcast – In this week's episode of the No Cap podcast, Jack and Alex chat with Albert Lojko, President of LightBox, about the necessity for standardization in commercial real estate to drive real innovation.

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extend-and-pretend

Maturities Mount as Lenders Delay the Inevitable

Lenders extended a record $384B in commercial real estate loans into 2025—marking another year of "extend-and-pretend" over forced resolutions.

A new high: According to a new Colliers report, $384B of loans originally set to mature before 2025 have now been pushed into this year—a 42% jump from 2024’s total of $270B. That accounts for roughly 40% of the $957B in CRE debt coming due in 2025.

Zoom in: The trend shows no signs of slowing, with Colliers noting that many borrowers still can’t refinance at today’s rates and lenders remain reluctant to foreclose. “We are not done with extend-and-pretend,” said Aaron Jodka, Colliers’ Director of Research for U.S. Capital Markets.

Who’s extending and why? Even in sectors showing signs of recovery—like office—many owners can’t refinance loans made at pre-pandemic, low interest rates. Instead, lenders are opting for 1–3-year extensions to buy time and avoid write-downs.

Multifamily saw the largest extension volume at $97B—around a third of the sector's 2025 maturities.
Industrial loans were the most extended proportionally, with 55% of 2025 maturities pushed from prior years.
Office came in with $85B in extensions—45% of its $187B due this year.

Case in point: In just the past month, over $1B in Manhattan office loans were extended, including a $525M CMBS loan tied to 150 E. 42nd St. The three-year extension underscores how large urban assets are still seen as worth waiting on, even if the economics don’t yet pencil out for a full payoff.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The debt isn’t going away: Foreclosures may be rising, but widespread distress hasn’t fully materialized—yet. With $663B in CRE debt maturing in 2026, another wave of extensions is likely. As Jodka puts it, “It’s somewhat like a carousel… record-setting maturities year after year.”

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Labor crunch: Deportation crackdowns are driving undocumented workers off job sites, worsening construction delays and labor shortages.
Signs of a bottom? Office sales jumped 21% in 2024 and leasing outpaced vacancies for the first time since 2019, signaling the market may have finally hit bottom as demand shifts toward top-tier space.
Distress divide: Distress levels across top U.S. metros vary widely, with cities like Minneapolis and Providence topping 40% while markets like Salt Lake City and San Diego remain near zero, highlighting uneven recovery.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Under receivership: San Francisco’s largest apartment complex, Parkmerced, entered receivership after Maximus defaulted on a $1.5B CMBS loan tied to the property.
GSE pivot: The Trump administration is weighing a plan to transfer stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund, potentially setting the stage for long-delayed privatization.
Refusal: L+M is suing Santander Bank for rejecting a deed-in-lieu on a rent-stabilized Harlem property as falling values and regulatory changes make ownership financially untenable.
Gateway growth: International migration drove 96% of major metro population gains in 2024, fueling a resurgence in gateway cities like NYC, Boston, and San Francisco—and boosting CRE demand nationwide.

🏭 Industrial

Manufacturing surge: Johnson & Johnson is investing $55B in U.S. manufacturing—including a $2B plant in North Carolina—as looming drug tariffs and trade pressure drive domestic expansion.
Major contract: Boeing landed a $20B Air Force contract to build next-gen fighter jets at its newly expanded $1.8B manufacturing site near St. Louis.

🏬 RETAIL

Deal of the day: Chanel plans to buy 65K SF of retail at Extell’s 655 Madison Ave for $450M, potentially securing the anchor tenant for a planned condo tower.
Retail push: Primark is opening a new store at Potomac Mills in Virginia, marking another step in the fast-fashion giant’s U.S. expansion strategy.
Consumer demand: Despite rising store closures, retail demand remains strong in early 2025 as consumer spending holds steady, vacancy stays low, and expansion plans from diverse tenants drive investment activity.

🏢 OFFICE

Disconnected: Office sector preleasing is climbing, and construction is slowing, yet new office buildings are seeing record-high vacancies—highlighting a disconnect in tenant preferences.
For sale: Boston’s One Lincoln office tower was sold back to its lender for $400M—less than half its 2006 purchase price—after years of vacancy struggles and failed lease-up efforts.
Tower auction: A Detroit Renaissance Center office tower fetched a high bid of $9.2M at auction, hinting at possible redevelopment for the former GM headquarters site.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Working it out: Starwood Capital is working to modify a $577M CMBS loan tied to a struggling 63-hotel portfolio as cash flow declines and asset values fall.