Nationwide Rents Stabilize, NYC Rents Up 20–26%
April saw stable national rents: one-bedrooms fell to $1,486, and two-bedrooms edged up to $1,843, with NYC spikes and North Carolina drops due to higher inventory.
Jordan B. & Han-Gwon Lung
April 24, 2024
Together with
Good morning. April’s national rent index was stable, with NYC spikes and North Carolina drops due to higher inventory. Meanwhile, BREIT is gaining momentum, but fundraising remains well below expectations.
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Market Snapshot
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*Data as of 4/23/2024 market close.
MULTIFAMILY METRICS
U.S. Rent Landscape Shows Rents Remain Relatively Stable
National multifamily annual rent changes are holding steady, according to Zumper’s recent report. But regions like NYC and North Carolina are experiencing very different shifts in prices.
By the numbers: The national rent index stayed stable, with one-bedroom rates slipping just 0.6% to $1,486, while two-bedroom rates crept up by 0.1% to $1,843. Modest changes are anticipated in the year ahead due to the imbalanced relationship between the growing supply of rental units and the relentless demand for affordable housing.
Big Apple bonanza: The rental market in NYC defies national stability with significant YoY gains. One-bedroom rents surged nearly 20% to $4,280, while two-bedroom rents shot up 26% to $4,950, both far outpacing the average national rent growth. Notably, one-bedroom rents are up 50% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Exceptional growth: NYC continues to stand apart from national trends and Manhattan multifamily remains fiercely competitive, with prices soaring despite the looming threat of oversupply as the city gears up for a wave of new apartment completions in 2024. Class A buildings are offering attractive concessions, making it difficult for Class B and C properties to remain competitive.
Bump in the road: On the other side of the East Coast, North Carolina stands out for rent drops due to rising inventory. Winston-Salem led the decline, with one-bedrooms showing a 12.6% growth drop, followed by Raleigh and Greensboro with 5–11% declines. But North Carolina markets are expected to rebound strongly, especially in big cities like Charlotte and Raleigh, due to sustained population growth.
Tale of many metros: NYC and Winston-Salem weren’t the only metros to show regional variation. Knoxville, TN, witnessed one-bedroom rents go up by 7.1% to $1,360, while Scottsdale, AZ, saw two-bedroom rents drop by 10.40% to $2,240.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Looking ahead: 2024 has shaped up as a year of abundant choices for renters. Despite the significant demand for rentals in the U.S., fueled by wage growth outpacing rent increases, the supply of new apartments is set to reach a 50-year peak this summer. This booming inventory is expected to stabilize or even depress rent rates into 2025.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
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Fall from grace: S&P cuts San Francisco’s debt outlook to negative due to the city’s slow recovery and rising budget. Now, the embattled city risks a credit rating decline.
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Outpatient expansion: Medical trends are rapidly changing, and outpatient care demand is up due to numerous factors, such as demographics, new tech, reimbursement shifts, and more.
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Reality check: The upcoming Paris Olympics are leading to poor demand for luxury rentals, with some Parisian owners slashing prices by 30–60% due to an oversaturated market.
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Home sales surge: New single-family home sales in March hit their highest level since September 2023, with median prices at $430,700.
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Opportunity knocks: High interest rates and inflation in commercial real estate have opened doors for savvy investors despite market disruptions.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
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Waning momentum: In March, U.S. multifamily developments saw a 43.7% YoY drop in starts, with 290K units commenced compared to 515K units last year.
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Hot (cold) spot: Minneapolis continues to dominate RentCafe’s most searched markets, maintaining its lead for four consecutive months, while a rapidly rising southern city ascends 134 spots to seventh place.
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Venice ventures: Fogel Real Estate bought a $15M half-acre site in Venice Beach for an upcoming 36-unit 36.7SKF apartment building.
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Zoning zinger: Upzoning, or changing zoning to permit more building types, aims to expand housing affordability. But its effectiveness varies greatly.
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Developing dreams: Fort Lauderdale’s Development Review Committee will vote on a 978-unit apartment complex in Cypress Creek designed by MSA Architects.
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Diving back in: The Bozzuto Group bought the Gables 12 Twenty One complex in Rosslyn, VA for $44.5M, its first multifamily purchase in 16 years.
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Roadblocks ahead: The Siegel Group is all set to replace a defunct Vegas hotel with 480 apartments once permits are secured. Road work is currently pending.
🏭 Industrial
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Supply chain shift: Reshoring after the pandemic remains a mission-critical concern for big brands, which continue to face supply shortages and high transportation costs.
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Brooklyn boom: RXR Realty (RXRA) and LBA Logistics paid $123M for a 760KSF portfolio on the Gowanus waterfront in 2021, and just secured another $62M for the Red Hook project.
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Too much of a good thing: Landlords in Miami-Dade and Broward, FL, are seeing industrial rents plateau as vacancies rise. Recently, Palm Beach even saw rents drop.
🏬 RETAIL
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Retail resilience: After 15 years of limited focus on retail, Blackstone re-enters the sector with a £227M purchase of a prime London property on Bond Street, tenanted by high-end brands like Breitling, Audemars Piguet, and Church’s.
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DTC revolution: Levi Strauss (LEVI) shifts its focus to direct-to-consumer sales, with 48% of revenue from shoppers and plans to eclipse 55% by 2027.
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Merger madness: Kroger (KR) and Albertsons (ACI) boost store sales to 579 in an attempt to push a $25B merger approval over the finish line amidst a federal lawsuit.
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Dacra delivers: Miami Design District Associates acquired a fully leased property for $14M, expanding its holdings with luxury retail tenants.
🏢 OFFICE
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Commercial clash: CoStar (CSGP) opposes WeWork’s lease extension in bankruptcy, joining other landlords that have no intention to give further lease concessions.
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Office turnaround: The NJ office market shows increasing signs of improvement, with a reduced vacancy rate and higher leasing activity.
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Loan trouble: According to a Trepp report, the $250 million CMBS loan for the Cunard Building at 25 Broadway in the Financial District has gone into special servicing following a default, as the borrower failed to repay the debt at maturity.
TURNING POINT
Blackstone’s BREIT Shows Signs of Stabilization Despite Continued Fundraising Struggles
Blackstone’s Jonathan Grey (Getty)
As Blackstone’s BREIT real-estate fund starts to stabilize with the fulfillment of all redemption requests in recent months, the fund faces continued challenges in regaining its once-unstoppable fundraising momentum.
Reaching equilibrium: In a positive turn of events, BREIT has seen a significant decline in redemption requests, with March figures dropping to $799 million from February’s $961 million. This marks a stark contrast to the turbulent period in January 2023, when requests soared beyond $5 billion.
In the green: BREIT enjoyed a 1.8% return in the first quarter, marking a positive shift from the slight 0.5% decline it saw last year. The fund’s annualized net returns since inception now stand at 10.5%, supported by major asset sales totaling about $18B since 2022.
Lackluster fundraising: Despite overcoming challenges with redemptions, BREIT struggles with attracting new funds. March’s intake was only $228 million, a modest amount compared to the $2 to $3 billion monthly rates seen in the first half of 2022. The drop in fundraising follows a difficult year where BREIT did not generate sufficient cash to cover its dividend, a first in the fund’s history.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Vision amid uncertainty: Amidst a downturn in the commercial real estate market, BREIT is adapting by exiting the office market and focusing on more resilient property types like student housing and data centers. With a first-quarter return of 1.8% and an impressive 10.5% annualized net return since its inception in 2017, BREIT is positioning itself to capitalize on market recovery. However, looming economic uncertainties and potential Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments pose fresh challenges.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Data from CoStar shows the decline in single tenant net lease (STNL) volumes by quarter…
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In the first quarter of 2022, the volume was $11.1 billion.
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In the first quarter of 2023, it dropped to $4.5 billion, a 60% decrease.
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By the first quarter of 2024, it further declined to $1.3 billion, representing an 88% decrease from 2022.
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