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NMHC Quarterly Survey Highlights Softer Apartment Market in Early 2025

Record supply, rising rates, and softening demand are creating a rocky start for the multifamily sector this year.

NMHC Quarterly Survey Highlights Softer Apartment Market in Early 2025

Record supply, rising rates, and softening demand are creating a rocky start for the multifamily sector this year.

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Good morning. Record supply, rising rates, and softening demand are creating a rocky start for the multifamily sector this year.

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Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
6,049.24
Pct Chg:
+0.88%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
781.59
Pct Chg:
+1.17%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.572%
Pct Chg:
-0.002
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.608
Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 01/21/2024 market close.

NMHC SURVEY

Historic Supply and Interest Rates Weigh on Multifamily

The January 2025 NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions paints a challenging picture for the multifamily sector to start the year.

Key metrics: The survey’s four primary indices—Market Tightness (40), Sales Volume (41), Equity Financing (48), and Debt Financing (32)—all fell below the neutral threshold of 50, indicating worsening conditions in Q4 2024.

What happened: A historic surge in apartment deliveries—2024 saw the highest supply since 1974—has intensified competition and exerted downward pressure on rent growth and occupancy, particularly in high-supply Sunbelt markets.

Zoom in: Higher interest rates are squeezing capital markets. The Fed signaled rates will stay elevated into 2025 with minimal cuts, while a 58-basis-point jump in the 10-year Treasury yield since October has pushed up borrowing costs and slowed deal flow.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The bigger picture: The Sunbelt, a region once thriving with demand, is feeling the brunt of the supply glut. Meanwhile, the higher cost of capital is creating headwinds for both developers and investors, further curbing deal flow across the country.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Tech Hubs: The US Department of Commerce allocated $210M in grants to six cities under its Tech Hub program, aiming to secure the nation’s place as a global tech leader.

  • Sign of trouble: Long-term bond prices are falling, raising concerns about the feasibility of Trump's deficit-driven economic strategy if it makes government borrowing more expensive.

  • Time is running out: As the US nears its debt ceiling, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announces emergency accounting actions to prevent a default, urging Congress to act swiftly.

  • New America: Economic and pop-culture metrics show how the US has evolved since Trump's first term, with changes in GDP, inflation, unemployment, and cultural trends shaping his second act.

  • It’s electric: Virginia's growing reliance on out-of-state power, driven by the surge of energy-hungry data centers, is pushing it to the forefront of US electricity imports.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • WeLive: Adam Neumann’s Flow won a court-approved auction for a 16-acre El Portal site with a $70.5M bid, outbidding Melo Group by $400K to secure the mixed-use development property.

  • Refi of the day: KKR Group (KKR) provided a $73M refinancing loan for the 216-unit Bell South Bay Apartments in El Segundo, LA, navigating a volatile market with Walker & Dunlop's help.

  • Capital commitment: Clear Investment Group acquired the 681-unit Marbury Plaza in Southeast DC and rebranded it as Langston Views, with plans to renovate and rebrand the property.

  • Big deal: Palladius Capital Management acquired a $579M portfolio of 9 residential properties, including 2.5K+ units across multifamily and student housing, focusing on high-growth markets.

  • Newly converted: As office markets struggle, multifamily investors seize the opportunity to convert them into housing, driven by strong demand, government incentives, and attractive returns.

🏭 Industrial

  • Data dynamics: As AI demand surges, the data center sector is on track to add up to 20 bps to US GDP by 2026, fueled by significant investments in infrastructure and energy.

  • Better than ever: As South Florida’s industrial boom continues, the region is seeing an uptick in both vacancy rates and rent prices, driven by a surge in new warehouse construction.

  • Windy industry: SL Industrial Partners acquired a 925 KSF portfolio of industrial flex properties in the suburbs of Chicago, a significant regional expansion.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Changing hands: PGIM Real Estate has taken full ownership of Bella Terra, a prominent lifestyle center in Huntington Beach, CA, after DJM Capital Partners exited the property.

  • What comes next: Retailers and consumers are bracing for the potential impact of proposed tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, which could disrupt the retail landscape.

  • Back to basics: A Colorado-based real estate group secured the acquisition of Alamance Crossing, the largest shopping center in Burlington, North Carolina.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Meeting the demand: GFP Real Estate landed $288M to convert the office building at 222 Broadway into a multifamily complex, as part of New York's growing trend of office-to-resi conversions.

  • Midtown moves: Sagehall joined RXR Realty (RXRA) as an equity partner in the 475 KSF office building at 530 Fifth Ave in Midtown Manhattan with a $180M recapitalization plan for the property.

  • Silicon is durable: San Francisco's office investment market is showing signs of recovery, with 2024 ending in a deal uptick as the city's office market rebounds from pandemic-era lows.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Eternal tourism: Blackstone (BX) agreed to purchase the 292-room Kimpton Hotel Eventi in Manhattan for $175M, capitalizing on the city’s rebounding hotel market and limited new hotel supply.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

rent growth in Midwestern cities

According to CoStar, rent growth in Midwestern cities like Detroit, Kansas City, and Cleveland exceeded the national average, fueled by strong demand and limited construction.

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