Trepp: Where Property Prices Are Trending by Sector

Trepp’s latest Property Price Index (TPPI) update shows varied trends in CRE price movements.

Jordan B. & Han-Gwon Lung
June 21, 2024

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Good morning. Trepp’s latest Property Price Index (TPPI) data shows varied trends in CRE price movements and where we are in the recovery. Plus, workplace quality is becoming increasingly crucial, as highlighted by two-thirds of respondents in CBRE’s latest survey.

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Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

5,473.17

Pct Chg:
-0.25%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

719.03

Pct Chg:
-0.24%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.232%

Pct Chg:
-0.022

SOFR

1-month

5.33%

Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 6/20/2024 market close.

PROPERTY PRICES

Trepp’s PPI Unveils Property Price Trends by Sector

Source: Trepp

When calculating values over time, baselines are everything. That includes property prices and their future direction. Trepp’s latest Property Price Index (TPPI) update shows varied trends in CRE price movements.

Overview of TPPI: The TPPI is based on proprietary CRE transaction data, tracking 569,900 repeat sales since 2000, with 9,192 new sale pairs added in Q1 2024. The index is equally weighted to represent various property types. Previously a composite measure, the TPPI now includes sector-specific indices for multifamily, office, retail, industrial, and lodging properties, offering a more nuanced view of the market.

Trending: In Q1 2024, the composite TPPI showed a QoQ increase of 0.51% and a YoY rise of 0.66%. Despite this growth, the index remains 1.94% below its mid-2022 peak, indicating ongoing market recovery.

Source: Trepp

Multifamily: The sector saw a slight quarterly increase of over 0.5% but experienced a year-over-year decline of more than 2%. Since the rate hike in June 2022, the multifamily index has dropped by nearly 6%, reflecting post-pandemic demographic shifts.
Office: Prices in the office sector are up 2.15% from June 2022. This resilience, despite broader market challenges, may be due to the sector’s illiquidity and reluctance of owners to sell at lower prices.
Retail: The retail index showed a minor quarterly increase of just over 0.1% but a slight year-over-year decline of -0.36%, indicating relative stability.
Industrial: The industrial index declined by 0.56% quarter-over-quarter but remained neutral year-over-year. From its peak, the index decreased by 1.32%, with continued strong demand in logistics and e-commerce sectors.
Lodging: The lodging sector saw a significant 4% quarterly surge and a 1.68% increase since June 2022. However, price trends remain volatile, influenced by consumer confidence and travel patterns.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Bigger picture: Trepp’s latest TPPI data reveals mixed news for CRE prices. While the overall market shows a modest recovery, sector-specific trends tell a different story. Multifamily properties are still struggling, office spaces show surprising strength, and retail and industrial properties remain steady. The hospitality sector experienced volatility but is bouncing back with significant quarterly gains.

Which CRE Sector Will See the Biggest Price Movement Over the Next 12 Months?

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Convention conundrum: LA officials plan to complete the city’s $1.4B Convention Center expansion for the 2028 Olympics.
Housing downturn: May saw a significant drop in housing starts, hitting a nearly four-year low while raising worries about a housing shortage.
Entry-level exodus: Entry-level jobs in CRE have fallen steeply, with open job listings down 26% YoY in May.
Better deal: Home-selling marketplace Redy, founded by Reality TV star Josh Altman, is launching in Dallas and four other cities.
Signs of the times: Something concerning is happening on Wall Street—traders are once again selling insurance to lenders against losses on a loan portfolio, something not seen since 2008.
Building blocks: John Arnold discusses the difficulties of building new infrastructure in America, citing red tape, NIMBYism, and policy hurdles.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Student housing: Mapletree sold The Cottages of Boone, an 894-bed student housing community in Boone, N.C., to Timberline for $91 million.
SoMa rebrand: New signage and a rebranded website for 33 Tehama St., now “SperaSF,” signal the owner’s effort to move past a flooding crisis with incentives like eight weeks of free rent for new tenants.
Testing Chicago: CA Ventures hires CBRE to market North + Vine, a 261-unit apartment building in Old Town, joining other firms exploring Chicago’s multifamily market.
Offering axed: Veris Residential (VRE) cancels its planned 10.5M share public offering for a 348-unit residential property acquisition in New Jersey.
Under the microscope: RealPage, under FBI investigation, is accused of facilitating rent fixing, inflating property values, and imposing bogus fees on tenants.

🏭 Industrial

Massive lease: Hub Group Inc. (HUBG) leased a 966.8KSF warehouse in Taylor, PA, owned by Gladstone Commercial (GOOD), enhancing its logistics operations.
Big bucks: J.C. Penney invested $40M in a Reno distribution center as part of a larger $1B real estate portfolio upgrade.
Industrial splurge: A San Diego real estate firm sold two industrial projects, totaling 221.3KSF, in San Marcos and Temecula for $74M.

🏬 RETAIL

Keys returned: Macerich (MAC) defaulted on a $300M loan for Santa Monica Place mall, handing the property back to the lender.
Persistent pasta: Olive Garden (DRI) stands out from other fast dining options by resisting price cuts in the ongoing restaurant war, focusing instead on profitable growth strategies.
Retail revolution: Henry and Susan Samueli are planning a retail village in Anaheim. They’ve already bought a 105KSF building, with plans for 405 homes and 583KSF of shops.
Mario’s odyssey: Nintendo will soon open a new 11KSF store in San Francisco’s Westin St. Francis Hotel in Union Square.

🏢 OFFICE

Downsizing trend: JPMorgan reported a 14% drop in office space taken by tenants post-pandemic, leading to elevated vacancies nationwide.
Luxury leap: Jones Day will soon move to a new Harwood tower, which will span three floors across 73KSF. Notably, the firm has been the landlord’s tenant since 1995.
Construction conundrum: Office construction activity has declined due to high capital costs and uncertain demand, changing project composition.
Good deal, Guttman: Pearl Realty’s Jack Guttman buys a stake in 81 Prospect Street for $33.8M from RFR and Kushner Companies.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Luxury auction: The William Vale Hotel in Brooklyn sold for $177M to EOS Hospitality in a recent bankruptcy sale.
Property pursuits: JLL Inc. (JLL) secured $575M in financing for Diplomat Beach Resort, a 1K-key resort managed by Hilton (HLT) in Hollywood, Florida.
Travel trends: Springboard Hospitality’s CEO Ben Rafter foresees more growth in Hawaii and the West Coast, and expects a rebound in San Francisco.

PRODUCT REVIEWS & GUIDES

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📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Figure 3: Prime vs. Non-Prime Supply & Demand

Source: CBRE

Workplace quality is becoming increasingly crucial, as highlighted by two-thirds of respondents in CBRE’s Global Live-Work-Shop Survey.

From Q1 2020 to Q1 2024, prime buildings experienced a positive net absorption of 48 million sq. ft., whereas non-prime buildings saw a negative net absorption of 170 million sq. ft. As tenants adapt their portfolio strategies to accommodate more flexible working patterns, the preference for high-quality office space is expected to persist.