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US Housing Rebounds After Single-Family Construction Surge

Housing starts rose 11.2% in February to 1.5M units, driven by single-family construction.

US Housing Rebounds After Single-Family Construction Surge

Housing starts rose 11.2% in February to 1.5M units, driven by single-family construction.

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Good morning. Housing starts rose 11.2% in February to 1.5M units, driven by single-family construction, though builder caution lingers amid declining permits and rising material costs.

Today’s issue is brought to you by Bullpen—an exclusive talent network that connects companies to vetted commercial real estate experts for freelance and fractional work assignments.

🎙️ No Cap Podcast – Hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik sit down with StorageMart CEO Chris Burnham to discuss his family's real estate roots, building a multibillion-dollar storage empire, and the $3.2B Manhattan Mini Storage deal.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
5,638.94
Pct Chg:
+2.49%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
771.27
Pct Chg:
+1.47%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.285%
Pct Chg:
0.0229
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.328
Pct Chg:
0.0%

*Data as of 03/14/2024 market close.

Heating Up

US Housing Rebounds as Single-Family Construction Surges

US housing starts bounced back in February, jumping 11.2% to an annualized 1.5M units, with single-family builds leading the charge. Builders remain cautious, however, as permits dipped and material costs remain a concern.

By the numbers: Overall, housing starts rose 11.2% to 1.5M units on a YoY basis, beating forecasts. Single-family starts were up 11.4% to 1.11M units—the fastest pace in a year. Meanwhile, multifamily starts rose 10.7%, driven by rebounding demand. Building permits slipped -1.2% to 1.46M units, signaling some builder caution.

Incentives in play: Builders are still sweetening deals with mortgage rate buydowns and price cuts. Currently, the supply of new homes is at its highest level since 2007, putting pressure on prices. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index fell to its lowest level since August, revealing concerns over future demand.

Tariff trouble: Of course, uncertainty over looming tariffs on building materials like lumber is adding to builder hesitation nationwide. Rising material costs could greatly slow down new construction, despite the recent rebound.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Cautiously optimistic: While high mortgage rates, rising supply, and tariff concerns could challenge further growth, home sales data dropping later this week should offer key insights into buyer demand. Builders may have to keep offering incentives to keep demand steady.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Crack the code: Learn how to analyze deals with confidence using real-world strategies and advanced modeling techniques.

  • Stable self storage: After two years of falling rents, self-storage pricing is showing signs of recovery, with rate stabilization and slowing new supply expected to support late 2025 growth.

  • Florida housing reform: Lawmakers proposed updates to the Live Local Act, aiming to accelerate tax incentives and curb local zoning restrictions to boost affordable housing development.

  • Expanding SFR portfolio: JPMorgan (JPM) secured a $176M loan from Brookfield (BN) to buy a 709-home single-family rental portfolio in Atlanta, targeting growing Sun Belt rental demand.

  • Flood protection plan: With $46B in needed funding, NYC is exploring shoreline fees, new taxes, and insurer partnerships to finance flood resiliency without relying on federal aid.

  • Facing a $1B lawsuit: Investors filed a $1B class-action suit alleging CrowdStreet operated as an unregistered broker-dealer, exposing them to fraud linked to Nightingale Properties.

  • Landing in prison: Former strip mall mogul Jonathan Larmore was sentenced to five years in the slammer for attempting to manipulate WeWork’s stock price with a fraudulent $77M takeover bid.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Multifamily rents steady: US multifamily rents remained largely unchanged in February as high new supply, seasonality, and economic uncertainty kept price growth in a "holding pattern."

  • Outpacing single family: Multifamily rent growth outpaced single-family rentals for the first time since June 2024, with US asking rents rising 3.5% YoY to $1,980 in February.

  • Refi of the day: Glenwood Management refinanced its 339-unit Lincoln Square rental at 160 West 62nd Street with a $231M loan from the NYS Housing Finance Agency.

  • New fund launched: SDS Capital Group debuted a $1B debt platform to finance affordable housing via corporate bonds, expediting project funding and lowering per-unit costs.

  • Office-to-residential swap: 4Terra and SRM plan to replace a three-story office building near UC Berkeley with a 201-unit apartment complex, leveraging SB 330 for streamlined approvals.

  • Koreatown scaled down: Townline and Forme Development reduced their planned Koreatown high-rise from 40 to 8 stories, moving forward with a 318-unit mixed-use complex.

🏭 Industrial

  • Richmond deal: JLL Income Property Trust (ZIPTAX) acquired the fully leased, 280K SF Sauer Industrial Center in Richmond, VA, for $40.7M from Becknell Industrial.

  • Expanding westward: BKM Capital acquired 1.2M SF of industrial assets across Arizona and Nevada, citing strong demand in supply-constrained markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas.

  • Cold in Houston: Americold Realty Trust (COLD) is investing $127M to acquire and expand a cold storage facility in Greater Houston, adding 35.7K pallet positions to its portfolio.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Discount growth: Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Five Below (FIVE) posted strong YoY foot traffic gains in 2024, driven by expansion, rising customer loyalty, and increased weekday visits.

  • Music City asset: Regency Centers (REG) acquired the 320K SF Brentwood Place Shopping Center for $119M, expanding its Nashville presence amid strong retail demand.

🏢 OFFICE

  • AI boosts leasing: Etched and Securiti.ai leased 60.4K SF at One Santana West in San Jose, bringing the 375K SF office building to 80% occupancy and boosting Silicon Valley office leasing.

  • Uber expands: Uber (UBER) bumped up its office space at 3 World Trade Center by 44.1K SF, bringing its total footprint to 351.5K SF in the 2.5M SF Silverstein Properties tower.

  • Taking the loss: Brookfield (BN) sold a 148K SF Arlington office building for $47M, taking a slight loss on its 2021 purchase price of $50.1M.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Billion-dollar expansion: Ultra-luxury hotel brand Aman plans to raise $2B to fund 23 new hotels, expand Aman Residences, and grow its Janu line targeting younger travelers.

  • Hyatt issues bonds: Hyatt (H) issued $1B in bonds to help finance its $2.6B acquisition of Playa Hotels & Resorts, expanding its all-inclusive resort portfolio in the Caribbean.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Target-date funds (TDFs) remain a dominant force in retirement investing, with REITs playing a crucial role. By the end of 2024, nearly all TDF providers allocated a portion of their portfolios to REITs, reflecting their value in diversified asset allocation strategies.

Among major TDF providers, Schwab leads with the highest maximum REIT allocation at 9.2%, followed by MFS (7.7%) and PGIM (7.5%). Other key players, including BlackRock, Empower, and ClearTrack, also maintain allocations well above REIT market cap weighting.

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